Unexpected Climate Changes Predicted Following Tonga's Volcanic Eruption

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai (Hunga Tonga for short) erupted on January 15 2022 in the Pacific Kingdom of Tonga. It created a tsunami which triggered warnings across the entire Pacific basin, and sent sound waves around the globe multiple times.

A recent study published in the Journal of Climate delves into the climate effects resulting from this volcanic eruption. The findings reveal that the eruption could have long-term implications on winter weather patterns for years to come. The unique characteristics of Hunga Tonga's eruption, particularly the significant release of water vapour into the stratosphere, set it apart from conventional volcanic events.

Typically, volcanic smoke, particularly sulphur dioxide, causes a cooling effect on the Earth's surface. However, due to the underwater nature of Hunga Tonga, the eruption primarily resulted in the release of water vapour. This immense volume of water ended up in the stratosphere, a region that does not form clouds or precipitation. The presence of water vapour in the stratosphere can lead to chemical reactions that deplete the ozone layer and contribute to the greenhouse effect.

Scientists worldwide are examining satellite data to understand the behaviour of the water vapour post-eruption. Climate models are being utilized to predict the future impact of this event, highlighting potential alterations in weather patterns across various regions. The study's simulations indicate the eruption's influence on the ozone hole and the Southern Annular Mode phenomenon, affecting temperatures and precipitation globally.

While the overall impact of the eruption on global temperatures is minimal, certain regions are projected to experience unusual weather patterns in the coming years. Australia, North America, and Scandinavia are expected to witness deviations from typical winter conditions. The study emphasizes the need for further research to comprehensively assess the consequences of the substantial amount of water vapour introduced into the stratosphere.