Time: 2024-07-19
Crude oil prices have seen a rebound in recent trading sessions , with experts attributing this rally to various factors . Rystad Energy 's Claudio Galimberti highlights the impact of demand concerns in China and the influence of Canadian wildfires on the market dynamics . Galimberti emphasizes that the energy markets are currently tight , leading to the price surge.
Looking forward , Galimberti predicts that oil prices will remain within a range of 0 to 0 per barrel , largely due to OPEC production cuts . He points out that OPEC 's determination to maintain a price threshold of 0 and the potential lack of compliance with production cuts if prices exceed 0 are key factors influencing this price range.
JP Morgan 's note suggests that WTI crude oil prices could surge to 00 per barrel in the coming year due to reduced incentives for producers to increase production . The investment bank estimates the current equilibrium price for WTI oil at around 0 per barrel , highlighting the potential for a significant price increase.
Recent trends in oil prices have been influenced by factors such as a larger - than - expected U.S. crude inventory draw and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Fed . Despite initial concerns about China 's oil demand , prices have risen following positive inventory reports and expectations for peak demand in the northern hemisphere.
Recent reports indicate that U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately 5 % below the five - year average for this time of year . Analysts expect oil prices to remain well supported in the 0s range during the third quarter , with forecasts suggesting a slight decrease in prices for the full year 2025.
Banks and analysts are closely monitoring the actions of the OPEC+ group , as any decision to maintain production cuts could prolong the market deficit into the next year . Overall , the oil market is experiencing fluctuations driven by a combination of supply and demand dynamics , geopolitical factors , and global economic trends.
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